A hike to Good Luck

Here's a short blog about a short adventure.

SUPERDAVE puts the boulder back upright.

Boulder stable once more,
the den will certainly be occupied
by some lucky bear.

A fine view from atop the cliff,
with Spectacle Lake off in the distance,
and wind turbines in the further distance.
Don't see them?  Get your eyes checked.

Dave shows SUPERDAVE proper form for the standing broad jump.
He was encouraged not to demonstrate on the precipice. 

Daves on high on Good Luck Mountain.

Another view shows another pretty face.

And a quick visit to pretty little Good Luck Lake
after hiking back down.
A stroke of good luck to find this view!

The Ontology of Genealogy

First, an explanation so you can calibrate or discard the following comments.  Those who tend to be engineers find that the label is much more than vocational.  It affects one's world view, and makes the engineer want to understand how things work. With treatment, one may be able to surmount these difficulties, but first one must admit there is a problem.  Not having done so, please bear with me.

So why is it Genealogy and not Geneology?  Seems like it fits nicely into a classification with all the other “ologies.”  Perhaps an artifact of the thoroughly bastardized English language? More an analogy than an ontology?  Blame the Greeks.

Regardless, considering ancestry, there is only one database, which is all the people in the world, ever.  Just one yet-to-be-fully-populated database. One finite, but expanding, database.

A quick scan of the internet, repository for all misinformation and some good stuff, yields a figure of 108 Billion souls on earth from 50,000 BC.  Of course, that assumes that you believe in souls, and not in reincarnation, and that the hand of God did not create Earth relatively recently.

At least for the purposes of this discussion, we don’t really care.  This is all about unique and somewhat more recent humans.

One unique and somewhat more recent human.

So what’s the cutoff?  50,000 or 10,000 BC is irrelevant.  Too far back for practical use.

Let’s use 1 C.E., which is the same as 1 A.D.  Common Era or Anno Domini. Once again, who cares about the nomenclature?  It’s the same year, no matter what terms you use to describe it. A little over 2000 years ago.  A long time gone. Backward into the mists of time well before most preserved spotty records of “who” and “when” began.

46 Billion -  That’s the number the Population Reference Bureau (PRB - They count people) quotes as being the total number of humans on the planet since year 1. Kinda shoots the popular old internet adage that “There are more people alive now than total for the rest of time.”  Please, check out the PRB website to get a feel for the assumptions used, but clearly, the number is at least Carl Sagan’s “billions and billions.” (Yeah, that misquote came from the internet.)

Let’s put the number in perspective.  In 2014, Shazam, the music recognition service, reported that they could identify 15 Billion songs.  Certainly, that number is much higher today.

Yes, this app.

No, not this upcoming movie.
Do you think they'll be sending a check for this bit of promotion?

The point is that in the age of big data, 46 Billion is not an insurmountable number.  It is possible to have a database including every person alive since the year 1. Manageable, even.  Of course, anyone who has ever delved into filling even a few of those spots in the database knows that it might be a little more difficult than doing analysis of mathematical representations of audio waveforms.  And you can’t download your relative even if you do identify him. Or her. And she is usually a lot more difficult to identify than he.

But it would be interesting have visibility into as much of the database as practical.

Going through the numbers, start with 2 parents, then 4 grandparents, 8 great grandparents and so on.  After 20 generations, you’re related to over one million people, assuming no inbreeding. So for most of us, at least 500,000 relatives.  Less if you happen to have the misfortune of royal blood.  So conservatively assuming 25 years per generation, this all happens within the space of 500 years.

One Father, Two Grandfathers, and one of 4 Great-Grandfathers.

Even if you have a database with all the names and the connections between them, it would only be moderately interesting.  Yeah, it’s great to know that a distant relative is so-and-so, but the name of the person and relationship are not enough. Pretty much just a data point, they’re not terribly interesting without some embellishment.  Stories, recipes, photos, military records, published articles, awards, jail terms, diseases, lottery wins, bankruptcy proceedings, substance abuses, and so on are necessary to make a past life relevant to your own.

For the most part, we only really know about the wealthy and powerful, because they were usually the ones who left the best traces.  So often we “cherry-pick” to determine how we are related to these notables. Ancestor came to the New World with the other 101 people on the Mayflower?  You may be a direct descendent, just like tens of millions of others, but that lineage is probably less than 0.0002% of your 500 years of gene mixing. Not particularly comprehensive.

Maybe not comprehensive, but pretty cool, nonetheless.

But the limited look backward does not need to be perpetuated.  You and yours can compile the database for your lineage not only in the past but also in the present and for the future.  You progeny can know you and yours in a much more comprehensive fashion. And compiling these records is getting easier every day, since we’re being watched and documented all the time.  It’s 34 years past 1984!

With all this data being acquired, where do all these records belong?  Who should hold your data? The Mormons? Google? Ancestry DNA? Certainly!  These and others all have pieces of the puzzle that will help immeasurably. And don’t forget to contact that helpful Nigerian Prince.  He always wants to share.

Many sources will help populate your family database, which of course, will be in the care of your family.  With the distributed web 3.0, multiple members of your own clan can store relevant data, redundantly and safely.  Links to those ancestors outside of immediate interest can be provided, so that you can link up with other families maintaining their own portions of the whole to get a bigger picture.  And they with yours.

Imperfect?  Sure. But the redundancy inherent in families can be used to provide multiple storage sites for duplicate relevant data so that the chances of loss are low.  And the incentive for maintaining the data rests with those who can most benefit. Contribute as you learn. Repeat this over and over again and the single database of all the people in the world is created by keeping the good stuff about one’s lineage, past and present, and the links that connect to others.

So it’s time to find a bunch of other engineers (let’s find some capable ones) and folks with money (lots of it!) so we can provide you and yours with those little gizmos that keep your family history safe and sound!

Looks like one of those capable engineers!

Or maybe just search the internet to see who has already done the deed.  And get an anti-gravity machine while we’re at it.

Why the World Cup Matters

Football is the world's sport.  No, not the American version, which might better be termed "Tackleball," but the more aptly named game that enthralls billions.  Some of us here in the US of A are fortunate enough to understand the reasons for the love of the game, even if we do call it "Soccer."  Here are a few.

It is a simple, simple game.  With the exception of the offside rule, nothing takes much explanation.  People do not need to speak the same language to play on the same team.  In the formalized rules provided by FIFA, the world's game-governing body, there are only 17 "laws," and several are procedural, relating only to organized games.  The essence is this: Get the ball into the other team's goal without using your hands.

No equipment is necessary.  Yes, in fortunate places, we use cleats and shinguards and goalie gloves and uniforms and regulation size goals with nets into which we try to place the regulation size ball, but none of this is really needed.  On beaches and in alleys and in fields all over the world, people kick a ball (or even a substitute like rolled up socks) back and forth between each other, trying to get that object between the dual discarded shirts or other debris that make the goals.  

Law enforcement goalkeeper.  Beat the Man?

The people of all ages who play the game need not be of any particular size or shape.  The game does not discriminate against those of us who might not be particularly tall or wide or muscular or fast or graceful.  Over the years, many of the world's best players have been quite small.  Lionel Messi is the current embodiment.  Yes, quickness and speed are certainly beneficial, but not absolutely required in the way that size is demanded for so many sports.  Even with speed and quickness being advantageous, the game has a place for those who tower over the small and quick as long as they learn to use their strengths to advantage.  And for us more average physical specimens, intelligent play can be at least as effective as physical prowess.

Excellence in football is not limited to rich or powerful or large countries.  In 2018, the slightly more than 300,000 citizens of Iceland were proud to cheer on their team in the Cup, while the teams from the Netherlands, Italy and the USA stayed home.  Croatia's total of 4 million people root for their team in the final.  Every country has a chance!

Coolest postage stamp sheet ever, but they should all be soccer balls.

It is an inclusive sport.  All countries are welcomed, but each has to prove its worth to make it to the world's stage.  The qualifying process takes 2 years with multiple rounds and games, so it is very unlikely that any team making to the final 32 of the World Cup is not deserving.  The matches in the 2018 Cup are particularly demonstrative.  Previous winner Germany did not make it out of the round robin stage.  Perennial power Brazil did not get to the semi-finals.  Japan came Oh-so-close to eliminating powerful Belgium.  

Every fan in every country can unabashedly support his or her national team.  In 1994, when the tournament came to the US, the joy of watching one's team play was obvious.  The Argentinians came painted and caped with flags.  The Bolivian fans chanted Bo-LEEE-via as one of their own pounded out the rhythm on an oversized blue and white drum.  When the Italians scored, fans came from all over the stadium to kiss the meter-tall Madonna statue carried by the man a few rows in front our seats.

Politics matter little, if at all.  Once the whistle starts the game, your national side must prove its value.  And any team that makes it to the final 32 is just that...a team.  Star players can help, but there is no substitute for teamwork.  Though players on the roster for each country may be separated by geography, language, religion, race or any of the other wedges we use to divide ourselves, if the players are not working as a team, defeat is inevitable.  All must be singing from the same hymnal, even if it is not the one preferred.

The trophy.  Not everyone gets one.

And there is no shame in defeat.  All understand that not everyone can win, and that an inch here or there can decide a close game.  Every "weaker" team knows that if they can stay in the game until the very end, there is a chance that they can do something brilliant and win.  The only way that any team or player need be ashamed is if they did not bring their absolute best effort to the field.  If they've done their best, they've represented their nation as well as they possibly can.

So while there is only one cup winner, fans all over the world have every reason to be proud when their players represent their nation with a great effort...a united effort where all are elevated by incorporation into an effective team.  An effort that is the best they can produce.

The world beyond football has much to learn from the World Cup.